In 2011 Apple and its iPad continued to dominate, but Android Honeycomb was the big mover. In 2012 Windows 8 is coming, and there's going to be a three-way battle for your money.
In the 200 months in which we've been putting together PC Advisor, one computing platform has stood head and shoulders above the rest: Windows. But the changing size and shape, and the sheer variety, of the personal-computing devices we now use is putting unprecedented pressure on Microsoft's OS. Sure, it still has comfortably the biggest market share in terms of desktop computing, but the real growth and development is in the mobile space. And while Microsoft is still in the process of persuading recalcitrant XP users to shift to Windows 7, yet another Windows refresh is coming down the tracks.
Windows 8: Irrelevant upgrade?
An IDC report recently described Windows 8 as “largely irrelevant” in terms of desktop computing. “Customers will be asking ‘What value does Windows 8 bring to my desktops and laptops?'” warned Al Gillen. He believes access to the app store is the only real benefit.
To put it another way, Windows 7 is very successful although not particularly loved, and Windows 8 is, in essence, simply its predecessor with a bit of ‘mobile' added on. An app store, a Windows Phone interface, and the ability to run on tablets and – potentially – smartphones. So why would people upgrade their desktop PCs and laptops to Windows 8?
In part because of the perceived failure of Vista, PC users have taken to Windows 7. A rough metric, granted, but in the past month 51 percent of visitors to PCAdvisor.co.uk ran Windows 7. Twelve months earlier, that figure was 32 percent. And as of September 2011 Microsoft claimed that it had sold 450 million Windows 7 licences – almost double what it had sold a year before. It might not be sexy, but that's a lot of volume.
Perversely that means it's going to be tricky to push traditional Windows users into yet another upgrade, with all the compatibility issues a Windows update cycle traditionally heralds.
Microsoft is clearly aware of this, and has recently made great play of the fact that Windows 8 will, like Apple's OS X, be available as a download. Indeed, the upgrade process from XP, Vista and Windows 7 will be, Microsoft tells us, a simple process. Visit a website, click a download, cross your fingers.
All well and good. But that the upgrade is relatively easy isn't in itself a reason to make the shift. The truth is, that may not matter. Because as much as Windows 8 is ‘irrelevant' to the desktop, the desktop is much less important to Windows 8. Microsoft has the market share on PCs and laptops, but as the world goes mobile it needs more smartphone- and tablet users in order to stay out in front of Apple and Google. And the key benefit to Windows 8 will be seamless integration of desktop and mobile: a familiar platform across all devices, at work and play (or so Microsoft hopes).
In this Microsoft won't be alone. Mac OS X is long in the tooth and Apple's long-term future might well be iOS-flavoured. And between Google's online apps, Chrome OS and Android, the big G is determined to take as big as possible a slice of your computing life, regardless of what size screen you have. But Microsoft has the massive advantage of being the only OS most people know, which means Windows 8 doesn't have to be a better tablet and mobile OS than Android in order to be a viable alternative.
Comments
Barry Angell said: It has been argued that Windows 8 has the potential to bridge the gap between the mobile and desktop environment and is a sign of Microsoft rising to the challenge laid down by its competitors Yet withdoubt increasingly surrounding the debate of Windows 8s enterprise suitability there is a real danger thatWindows 8 wont be adopted by the majority of large enterprisesThere are of course many enterprises that have already started the migration process from XP to Windows 7 with a completion date pencilled in for before the end of life of XP in 2014 Yet with many organisations only enacting desktop transformation plans now generalmigration fatiguecould prove a hugestumbling blockin the uptake of Windows 8 on corporate PCs At Juriba our experience suggests that in the largest accounts Windows 7 is seen as the only option for desktop transformation and to find additional budget for another migration straight after Windows 7 is going to be a challenge for even the most entrepreneurial of CIOsSupporters of Cloud Computing and the well-regarded Azure platform might suggest a superficially attractive end-run to the whole XP-Vista-7-8 chain with a mass move to a virtual desktop This could well work for some parts of an enterprise but as IT managers will know not every end user is a good virtual candidate and a one-size-fits-all Cloud solution for all quarters of a large enterprise is simplynot a viable option This gives credence to arising suggestions of organisations delaying the migration for a few years and allowing their users to familiarise themselves at home with Windows 8 due to the considerable paradigm shift involved With the risks associated with this paradigm shift enterprises may consider whether the sensible cost effective alternative is tobypass Windows 8 altogether and wait for its successorIn fairness Windows 8 wont suffer from the technical issues that hampered Vista But the real issue for Windows 8isntany technical shortcomings but itsemphasis on the mobile platformTo illustrate a new interface which puts a heavy emphasis on touchscreen use and sharing content with friends a built-in universal search facility for documents social networks and applications and so on are excellent features but may haveonly limited relevance to the enterprise market and this may justify a bit more sweating of the XP Vista and increasingly 7 assetsIn this respectMicrosoft is a victim of its own success due to the strength of Windows XP only now are organisations drawing up any serious plans for Windows 7 as I mentioned above Hence at Juriba we believe that not enough of the market has transitioned to Windows 7 to make a smooth upgrade path to 8 that convincing a scenarioYet for organisations who have not yet carried out their migrations to Windows 7 of which there are many further delaying and a philosophy of waiting for what Microsoft will do next means flirting ever-more dangerously with the rapidly-approaching 2014 end of support clock Even if your users are perfectly happy XP users it would befoolhardy to further ignore this encroaching deadline Windows 7 is an excellent OS that will present the very best platform for 8 9 and beyond A jump from XP to 8 will betoo big a migration to manage effectivelywith such little time available and you may limit your options needlessly as a resultSitting on XP made economic sense bypassing 7 and possibly even 8 does notBarry Angell CTOJuribawwwjuribacomIf you would like to get further involved in Windows desktop transformation discussions then I would encourage you to join thisWindows 7 Project Management Groupon LinkedIn httpwwwlinkedincomgroups
Test said: 17 has sold at least 500 million licenses please explain to me how that is not successful2The Windows 8 metro interface is optional Windows will have almost exactly the same look and feel as Windows 7 except for the ribbon being implemented all over the place There will not be an interface impact for enterprise users that you speak of3There are aLOT of XP based enterprise that have long moved to Server 2008 or R2 based backends Most also have no choice but to move over and have been testing since Windows 7 came out for their in house apps because support for XP will end in a few years4In what world is 50 adoption rate for an OEM based product low Heck in what world is a 50 adoption rate for anything low5You are outright kidding yourself if you dont think it wont make inroads into corporate IT Believe me reworking your IT system is not your biggest problem if you continue to work on an unsupported OS for the vast majority of your systems
scophi said: Ahh that does make more sense Apple certainly does have its followingAs for enterprises running Win8 without Metro -- thats true it could be done that way But to what benefit I havent seen any improvements in the desktop environment of Win8 over Win7 as it is now Why go through the trouble of installing an entirely new system just to reconfigure it back to the way the old system already worksPerhaps Microsoft is just focusing on Metro right now because its their game changer But I see no benefit of Win8 for desktops Not oneIts certainly not enough to get companies to make the switch from their current setupIts not even enough to make me switch my home computer I dont need IE10I still attest that Microsoft should have made two OSs Microsoft Metro for mobile devices and Microsoft Windows for desktops that could open a Metro environment if needed
Matt Egan said: I suppose what I was trying to say about people loving Windows 7 is that you dont get the same evangelical zeal from Windows users as you do from Mac fans But I agree its a fine piece of software I also liked Windows Vista with the right hardware But an underspecced Vista machine is a system nowhere near fit for purpose And a lot of those were sold One other point worth making enterprises could run Windows 8 without having to retrain staff the Metro interface is optional and used almost entirely for non-business reasons What will be interesting will be to see how well enterprises can run Windows 7 on the desktop and Windows 8 on mobile devices If Microsoft makes that easy we may have a winner
scophi said: Windows 8 will be a success because 1 its new and exciting and people will buy whatever Microsoft puts in front of them and 2 because it will becomethedefault OS on all new PCs Windows phones and Windows tablets Its the same reason that Vista despite its negative reviews outpaced the XP adoption rate and yielded a larger than expected user base even by Microsofts estimates If you bought a new computer you got VistaBut a large user base doesnt mean widespread acceptance I dont think most desktop users will be accepting of Win8 and I believe there will be a lot of downgrading back to Win7just as users downgraded to XP after Vista came outAdditionally and perhaps most importantly Win8 will not work well in an enterprise setting Corporations will have zero desire to rework their IT platforms and retrain hundreds of millions of employees on a new interface even in desktop mode This is why Windows 7 hasnt dominated as expected I have to disagree with the author and state that people do indeed love Windows 7 I dont know a person who doesnt But its not so strong in the corporate world because it doesnt offer a compelling reason to upgrade from XP Every company that I know through friends and family is still running XPand for the same reason Theres no reason to spend the time and money to implement Win7 My own IT department has stated that if I can give them a single reason to upgrade they would consider it I havent been able to provide one yetHundreds of millions of company computers are running an OS 2 generations old but I havent seen anything in the Win8 Dev Prev that will make them want to upgrade to Win8So yes I believe Win8 will be statistically successful due to new home PC and tablet sales But no I dont believe it will be accepted the same way as 98SE XP or Win7 - and I dont think it will make inroads into the corporate world at allAs such years down the road you will still see no more than a 50 adoption rate as Win7 is nowBy the way I liked Vista more than Win7 especially the UI I loved XP and would still be using it at home if it would support newer hardware And I wont be buying Win8 theres absolutely nothing I like about it
Matt Egan said: Well we see wont we I dont think anyone believes that Windows 8 will be a panacea for multi-device computing apart from possibly Steve Ballmer And I think he is bluffing But Microsoft doesnt have to be the best it simply has to be viable because it has something neither Google nor even Apple has overwhelming volume on the desktop that means it is the only platform many people know You say that desktop Windows programs wont work on ARM-powered tablets and youre technically correct But if youre a software developer are you going to ignore Windows especially a Windows that works across multiple devices I think not I suspect that all major software vendors are already working on mobile Windows versions of their wares chief among them a little company by the name of Microsoft that happens to make the worlds most popular productivity software The App Store and Android Market have shown us that you dont need all software programs to work on mobile devices just the right ones Theyve also illustrated the if you build it they will come maxim in the case of software vendors if there is a market the good ones will be in it and making money And trust me Windows 8 will be a massive app market across the desktop and mobile devices I absolutely think 2012 will be the year of Windows 8 Whether it will be the year of Windows 8 emerging triumphant is quite another question but Microsoft will be betting the farm on its next-generation OS and youll be reading about little else once it arrives And by the way I am the editor
melci said: So Matt I guess your editor wrote the headline for this article The body certainly doesnt provide much support for 2012 being the year of Windows 8 Considering you argue that Windows 8 on the desktop will be irrelevant and that mobile will be the main reason for such a headline the reason of seamless integration of desktop and mobile will have to be very compelling indeedHowever it is hard to see this as a strong point of Windows 8 considering desktop Windows programs wont work on ARM-powered tablets or phones destroying in one fell swoop the major possible advantage of this mobile-desktop platform Of course desktop Windows apps crammed into small Multi-touch tablet screens and even tinier smartphones would be a disaster as well so its hard to see how this will end well for MSThis all means that Windows tablets running Metro apps will not be able to take advantage of the vast amount of software available for desktop Windows and put Microsoft in the position of very minor player in the brave new Post-PC worldAll the factors that have kept desktop Windows top of the heap against all comers for all these years have been wiped away and Windows 8 has to compete on its own merits against the overwhelming dominance of Apples iOS platform and the established number 2 of AndroidOne has to give them credit for trying at least