Microsoft has long been worried about Linux competition in the server market. When it came to ordinary PCs and laptops, however, it knew it had little to fear.
But that was then. Now Microsoft may fear Linux on the desktop as much as it does the Mac. It's finally taking Linux seriously as a desktop operating system, and it has designed Windows 7 to kill it.
Let me explain.
The threat to Windows comes entirely from "netbooks" - lightweight, inexpensive laptops that typically use Intel 's low-powered Atom processor and don't come with substantial amounts of RAM or powerful graphics processors.
They're designed mainly for browsing the web, handling email, writing memos, and taking care of simple word-processing or spreadsheet chores.
Netbooks will account for about a third of all PC growth this year, according to Citigroup. Shipments will rise at an annual average rate of 60 percent to reach 29 million netbooks in 2010, compared with 18 percent growth for standard notebooks, says a September BNP Paribas report.
Clearly, the future is in netbooks. And that has Microsoft worried. Netbooks can't handle Windows Vista's hardware demands, so XP is the only Microsoft operating system that runs on them. But Linux is ideally suited for lower-powered netbooks.
The result? Acer and Asustek, which account for 90 percent of the netbook market, are using Linux on about 30 percent of their low-cost notebooks, according to Bloomberg. Making matters worse, if Linux is used on those netbooks, it means that Microsoft Office isn't. So Microsoft takes a double hit every time someone buys a Linux netbook.
Microsoft isn't just worried about ceding 30 percent of the netbook market to Linux. It's also worried that if people get used to running Linux on netbooks, they'll consider buying Linux on desktop PCs as well. Here's what Dickie Chang, an analyst at IDC in Taipei, told Bloomberg: "It's a real threat to Microsoft. It gives users a chance to see and try something new, showing them there is an alternative."
Microsoft, though, has a not-so-secret weapon against Linux: Windows 7. Its new operating system, slated to be introduced sometime next year, is designed to work fine on netbooks. In fact, at Microsoft's recent Professional Developers Conference, where the pre-beta of Windows 7 was unveiled, Windows Senior Vice President Steve Sinofsky showed off Windows 7 on his Lenovo S10 and said it used less than half of the netbook's 1GB of RAM.
When Windows 7 ships, expect a massive marketing blitz pushing it on netbooks with special deals, and netbook hardware taking advantage of Windows 7 capabilities, including touch screens.
In fact, the blitz has already begun. Asus CEO Jerry Shen announced that he plans to release versions of the Eee PC powered by Windows 7 in mid-2009, including a touchscreen version.
This is anything but a level playing field. Because no company owns Linux, there won't be a competing marketing push for Linux netbooks. Microsoft has shown before how tough it can be on competitors - remember Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect and Harvard Graphics? So expect Linux netbook sales to fall when Windows 7 ships.
Despite Microsoft's killer instincts, I don't think Linux netbook sales will stop dead. There will always be a niche for them. But within a year of the Windows 7 launch, Linux market share will drop. The high point for Linux netbook sales will be from now until the launch of Windows 7. After that will come the inevitable decline.
Comments
ROC said: Go for best of both worlds get the Windows Netbook XP or 7 as long as there is room on the HD to also install a Linux dual-boot setup I use Ubuntu most of the time on my Fujitsu P5020 a netbook ahead of its time and revert to Windows 2000 for those few things I need to run Windows programs for I had an Asus EEE 4g with the 7-inch screen and had a blast with the Linux variants on it but gave up due to the 7-inch screen I got the P5020 before the 9-inch screen models started hitting the market and enjoy its 10-inch screen and DVD-ROMCD-RW that you wont find in a netbook I still wanted a 6x9 inch netbook-size option and decided on a Lifebook P1120 on eBay for 140 and it does the job with Win2k and Puppy Linux The trackpoint and touchscreen are nice bonuses for me alsoAs long as there are good linux drivers for the netbook hardware I am quite willing to start with a Windows base and enhance it with Linux at no costChoice is a good thing
Walter Wego said: Big isnt necessarily better and with M this has proved true in the past IMO Linux in its variousguises loses out on three fronts- lack of funding promotion deals loses out on distribution on new hw- ease of use for the above reason and- newbies losing out on the M comfort zoneApple proves it can be done but has cash to splash to make it soPerhaps manufacturers should charge M to put their SW on new machines rather than taking low M subsidies
JZ said: I dont see why Microsoft can be suffering - it has XP which is still well liked for Netbooks
Simplr said: You are correct that netbook manufacturers will heavily promote Windows - that is because Microsoft pays them to recommend Windows and the resulting brainwashed public will choose Windows Computer manufacturers tend to consider their profits above all else
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Chris Lees said: Theres no way is Windows 7 going to kill Linux either on the desktop or on the netbookWhen Windows 7 comes about people are going to realise that it provides all the things that they hate about Vista the UAC prompts the resource use the lack of compatibility with ancient XP-era software and drivers the way the system doesnt look or feel like XP People are already starting to realise thisSure Linux doesnt provide a more comforting XP-style experience but some people expect things to be vastly different when they switch between operating systems where they wouldnt be so tolerant switching between different versions of the same OS
Blacksmith said: Win7 will not kill Linux It may give it a bit of a headache but thats not fatal There are too many folk out here who do not like Microsoft ethics World domination does not sit well with most people Ask HitlerHirohito G Dubya et al I still use Lotus Wordpro and 1-2-3 They may be old but are small and powerful and do the job for me As does Linux which Im trying at present Good luck to notebooks Perhaps they will force laptops to come down to a reasonable price
RB said: If Windows 7 is nothing more than Vista rehash that is enough to turn me off ever installing it
Hell Noire said: I dont care if Linux gets quashed by Windows If people want to use it let them Breeding flame wars like this article implies isnt needed If Windows 7 fails like Vista a lot of businesses in my area are going to Linux If not they will be using Windows 7
Richard Chapman said: Microsoft has defined Windows 7 according to Linux No Linux nothing to kill no Windows 7 When the time comes for Linux to die and it stubbornly refuses to Windows 7 will not just fail in its mission it will fail utterly
Psilax said: Lets first see what microsoft makes of windows 7 its not that current Alpha amp Beta releases are bad but its only a marginal factor beter then Vista This makes it still a no go for netbooks
Ray Woods said: But Linux is FREE Secure and efficient So far Microsoft fails on all these counts
superden said: If its anything like the rest of windows will it require norton anti virus to keep it safe This alone requires loads of ram to work with I will belive it when it happens
Peter said: Assuming that is W7 ships on schedule which from past Microsoft performance has to be in doubt And isnt there echoes here of Vista Ready about MS claims for W7 netbook performance