Linux has broken the 1 percent milestone for desktop market share. Here's why you shouldn't care.
Analytics company Net Applications has reported that in April, the percentage of "client devices" used to surf the web running Linux crossed the 1 percent level for the first time ever: 1.02%, to be exact. The firm enthusiastically noted: "Linux has reached this important milestone on the client as Linux-based systems have become more functional, easier to use, and pre-installed on computers from vendors like Dell."
On the web, you'd think manna had fallen from heaven. Linux backers touted the 1 percent breakthrough and predicted that Linux could eventually reach 20% market share.
My response: not in this lifetime. And in any event, you simply shouldn't care about Linux on the desktop.
Let's start off with why Linux will never become an important desktop or notebook operating system. Linux has been around since 1991 - a full 18 years - and is available for free. Given that, the recent "milestone" of 1 percent market share doesn't seem so impressive.
In addition, if you do some digging in the Net Applications numbers, you'll see that from August to March, Linux use was largely flat. Last August, Linux's market share stood at 0.93 percent and then gradually declined before picking up again and reaching that 1.02 percent peak in April. So it's not as if Linux is on a skyrocket trajectory.
Netbook dependency
There's also some evidence that Linux market share isn''t likely to ever get much higher than 1 percent, and certainly not more than 5 percent. The primary reason for the growth of Linux is the growing use of netbooks - inexpensive devices used primarily to surf the web and send and receive email. When netbooks were first sold, Linux was the desktop operating system on about 30% of them. Netbooks have been the fastest-growing segment of the PC market, which is why Linux finally broke the 1 percent barrier.
But Linux isn't faring so well on netbooks these days. Analyst firm NPD Group found that, by the beginning of this year, only 10 percent of all netbooks sold had Linux on them, and that number is likely shrinking. And Windows 7 will run on netbooks - something that Vista doesn't do - which means that Linux market share will drop even further when Microsoft launches a big Windows 7 marketing campaign.
How about Linux on desktop or notebook PCs? If you hunt hard enough, you'll be able to buy some from Dell. But apart from that, good luck.
Desktop Linux will simply never be popular enough for most people to care about. One big reason is the difficulty of upgrading and installing software. It's true that using the operating system itself is simple and straightforward - much easier than it was in the days when you had to be a command-line junkie to get anything done with Linux.
But when you try to install new software, or upgrade existing software, you'll be in for trouble. I won't get down and dirty with the details here, but believe me, it's not pretty.
Beyond that, there is no single version of Linux, and so by definition, using it becomes a non-standard experience. How many versions are there? I'm not sure anyone really knows. But these are just a few variants: Gentoo, Debian, Knoppix, Mandriva, SUSE, Red Hat, Xandros, Ubuntu, Slackware - and the list goes on.
The upshot? As a desktop operating system, Linux isn't important enough to think about. For servers, it's top-notch, but you probably won't use it on your desktop - even though it did finally manage to crack the 1 percent barrier after 18 years.
See also:
Can Windows 7 boot Linux off netbooks?
Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld.com and the author of more than 35 books, including How the Internet Works (Que, 2006).
Comments
itisi said: I think the writer must be refering to installing applicationst that are not in therepository If they are in therepository it is so simle to do
Rahere said: While there are grains of truth in this article - the higher trend of returns of linux netbooks for example - this is a strange article that seems to damn linux rather too easily while praising the largely unproven vista based windows 7 with its own problems such as lack of backward compatibility of software and high spec hardware requirements even OS security hasnt really improved that much it seems
Dave said: Was this written by a Microsoft employeeI know more and more people are moving to Ubuntu and the likes thanks to VistaCan i suggest you try the OS you talk about before making comments that are plain wrongas previous posts have said updatesinstalling software is easy
Peter said: Distros like Ubuntu and Linux Mint which Ive tried are easy to use and upgrade However I still prefer to use Windows partly because of my investment in software and also because of my familiarity with the OS which does all I need XP Pro at present such that I dont see a need to move to Linux or not at this moment in time anyhow
Ned said: Preston you are deeply wrong I have just earned 2oo helping couple business people installing Linux on their laptops because they were sick of malware ridden Windows machines
Jason said: Yes select AddRemove from the menu or Synaptic Package Manager for a greater selection click on the program required select install REALLY complicated
Richard Gates said: Have you tried installing extra software on Ubunto It doesnt sound as if you know what you are talking about