For months we've been hearing that tablet PCs - led by Apple's iPad - are hurting netbook sales in a big way. But are they really? For now, touchscreen tablets appear to be luring consumers away from netbooks but analysts believe in the long term, netbooks will hold their own in an increasingly fragmented mobile device market, particularly as computer makers address user complaints by enhancing netbooks with faster processors and new capabilities.
For months we've been hearing that tablet PCs - led by Apple's iPad - are hurting netbook sales in a big way. But are they really? It depends on whom you ask. For now, touchscreen tablets do appear to be luring consumers away from netbooks.
In the long term, however, netbooks will likely hold their own in an increasingly fragmented mobile device market, particularly as computer makers address user complaints by enhancing netbooks with faster processors and new capabilities.
Dueling data
Tech industry analysts can't seem to agree on whether tablets are harming netbook sales. Changewave surveyed more than 3,100 consumers and found that only 14 percent of those who planned to purchase a laptop within 90 days would get a netbook - a significant drop from 18 percent at the start of 2010, and 24 percent in June 2009.
But ABI Research says the netbook market will not be "gravely injured" by the iPad and similar tablets, including the Samsung Galaxy Tab and Research In Motion's BlackBerry PlayBook. "This is a rumour perpetuated by Apple fanatics," ABI Research mobile device analyst Jeff Orr said.
Orr points out that annual netbook shipments continue to grow, and that the top isn't in sight. Specifically, about 36 million netbooks shipped worldwide in 2009, and an estimated 43 million will ship in 2010. The netbook is the first ultramobile device to reach 'mass-market appeal', which Orr defines as a product that ships 40 to 50 million units annually. He acknowledges, however, that netbook sales are slowing, and says that today's shipments don't match the "meteoric growth" of the past two years.
Blame the iPad?
Netbook shipments in the US fell 34 percent from the third quarter of 2009 to the same period in 2010, according to research firm Gartner. The likely culprit? A certain tablet from Apple comes to mind.
"Yes, there was some displacement of mini-laptops by the iPad in the US, but determining how much is not an exact science," said Gartner client computing research director Angela McIntyre. She estimates that Apple's bestselling tablet 'displaced' 10 to 20 percent of netbook shipments in the US in the third quarter of 2010, which suggests that a sizable number of consumers chose the iPad over a netbook. Consumers appear not to be as enamoured of netbooks as they once were. But tablets aren't the sole cause.
In fact, netbooks weren't the only computer devices to suffer from sluggish back-to-school sales in the third quarter of 2010. "Many factors contribute to this, such as the down economy, few new compelling PCs on the market, and a wait-and-see attitude about new PCs and media tablets coming to market next year," said McIntyre.
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Comments
sirjohng said: Yes we have a Vista PC on an old AMD machine upgraded and it works flawlessly but tends to be slow compared with Win7 on an upgraded Pentium 4 laptop which is at least as fast as it was with Win XP Our best is still a dual core Intel PC with XP which whips along very briskly
pc aficiionado said: I wouldnt knock the Vista OS I find it to be great though taking a long time to load or perhaps I have too many programs I bought an Asus 116 netbook with 2meg RAM and 250GB HD a year ago and now do 98 of my work on it It operates flawlessly all for 400 or so
sirjohng said: Isnt an iPad just a jumped up iPhone with a bigger screen and far less convenient to carry around It seems to me that people will be lured into buying anything as long as the hype is there and then after a while it slips into a cupboard and disuse How many more form factors can the industry support before warehouses across the world are filled to bursting with so last months offerings UK is already seeing massive discounts up to 50 on those old fashioned HD televisions as the industry desperately tries to offload them in the wake of fast rising 3D sales
ND said: Just bought another netbook and very happy with the format Not locked down like an iPad much more storage much more flexible and much much cheaper Great games too gogcomIt can be a bit of a minefield buying a netbook though Not easy to compare specs since each manufacturer has so many different models Windows 7 starter edition works well as did XP on my old netbook Avoid VistaI have spent some time with iPads three friends have them I really do like them and can see why theyre so popular Maybe in a couple of generations theyll appeal more but right now my nice new netbook is perfect for me
james tanzanite said: id hate to think of the stock piles of various makes of netbooks stored in warehouses etc the ipad has made a big dent in there sales i have been in the market for a decent netbook for a while but the same old problems of nasty little atom processors have held me back bar the mac book and a few others but then we all dont have that sort of money to spend i have already seen old models advertised with updated processers and most are still the old os or if your lucky windows 7 starter as an after thought so i would say to anyone in the market for a new netbook do your homework look at the specs and compare with the latest models as the big players in this market will be trying every trick in the book to offload all the old models one way or another and youll end up with 23 year old specs poss with a better processor so do your homework folks
hoppy said: The iPad will not kill Netbooks but it will have an effectits early days yet but the market will pan out as the people who used netbooks for fun may switch to an iPad but people who use netbooks for work will probably stick with what they have The iPad created a market designed for fun and luxury but its an expensive luxury thats overpriced and limited but thats not stopping people from buying it