Will your next laptop be a smartphone? The idea isn't as crazy as it sounds. In the coming decade, mobile phones will gain capabilities that make them suitable replacements for the conventional desktop/laptop computer.
Phones are already more popular than PCs. New research by Canalys shows that 2011 global smartphone shipments topped those of client PCs -- including desktops, laptops, netbooks, and tablets -- for the first time.
The development is a "significant milestone," says Canalys analyst Chris Jones.
"The greater availability of smart phones at lower price points has helped tremendously, but there has been a driving trend of increasing consumer appetite for Internet browsing, content consumption and engaging with apps and services on mobile devices," Jones says in a statement.
While Canalys expects smartphone growth to slow in 2012, as vendors focus more on premium handsets that command higher prices, there's no denying the fact that the mobile phone has become the world's preferred computing device.
Would today's smartphone make a suitable replacement for your laptop or desktop? Probably not. If you work in an office, for instance, and spend most your day buried in spreadsheets, documents, and presentations -- in other words, work that cries out for a large display and full-size keyboard -- the phone-as-PC concept doesn't cut it.
A little less than two years ago, Motorola executive Sanjay Jha, who's now CEO of Motorola Mobility, predicted that smartphones would replace laptops in many enterprises within a few years. It's too early to say whether Jha's timing is spot-on, but technologies are emerging that bridge the gap between phone and PC.
Watch and Listen
Motion-sensing technologies such as Microsoft's Kinect may eventually migrate to smartphones, potentially freeing phone users from the fatigue of manipulating eye-straining screen keyboards, icons, and menus.
In fact, Kinect's move to mobile devices is already under way. Asus is reportedly developing Windows 8-based laptops with Kinect sensors located above the screen where the webcam usually goes.
True, it's unlikely that mobile users will want to gesticulate wildly in front of their phones, but Kinect, working in tandem with steadily-improved smartphone cameras, could hone its ability to interpret subtle gestures. There's certain room for improvement there.
Voice recognition is another emerging tech that could render the laptop (mostly) obsolete. We're already seeing fledgling efforts in this area -- Apple's Siri voice controls in the iPhone 4S being the most obvious example. But speech input is just getting started, and the ever-increasing processing power of mobile CPUs will assist its development. Quad-core phones, such as the rumored LG X3 and HTC Endeavor, should arrive this year. And advanced mobile chips, including Qualcomm's Snapdragon S4 lineup with clock speeds from 1.5GHZ and 2.5GHz, are coming soon.
Solving the Little Screen Problem
The smartphone's biggest weakness as a laptop-replacement PC is its tiny display. Even "gigantic" phones such as the Samsung Galaxy Note, with its 5.3-inch, 1280-by-800-pixel display, are tiny by laptop standards.
One possible solution: Built-in pico projectors that solve two ergonomic problems: small keyboards and screens. As demonstrated by the Mozilla Seabird concept phone, a projector-equipped handset could project a virtual keyboard on a tabletop, as well as a high-resolution image on a nearby wall. Motion controls could detect the user's keyboard-and-mouse actions.
Smartphones with projectors are reportedly under development at Apple and elsewhere, but shipping models are hard to find. One example is the Samsung i8520 Beam, an $800 Android phone with a Texas Instruments DLP Pico Projector. (Two Fujitsu Lifebook laptops, the S761 and P771, have slide-out projectors as well).
Pico projectors aren't ideal, however. What if there's no table, tray, or blank wall to project an image onto? And privacy concerns come into play. A laptop screen affords some degree of privacy, but a projected image is, well, out there for everyone to enjoy.
You may be asking: What about tablets? Couldn't they replace laptops just as easily? Perhaps, but the issue of size remains with a tablet (some of them about the same dimensions as the sleekest notebooks). Smartphones, with their slim-and-light, pocket-friendly dimensions, are better suited in the long run to replacing the personal computer as we know it.
Contact Jeff Bertolucci at Today@PCWorld, Twitter (@jbertolucci) or jbertolucci.blogspot.com, and follow Today@PCWorld on Twitter, too.
Comments
Matt Egan said: Shhh…
Mike said: So you don't actually do any work, then?! Just as I suspected!
Matt Egan said: There’s a deal of truth in what you say, but here’s an interesting thing: I’ve been away on business twice this year. The first time I took a laptop and never booted it. The second time, I didn’t bother but still took my tablet and found I used it only on a couple of brief occasions. The time we don’t need laptops or PCs at all (outside of the office) is a long way off, but it may come. After all, a few years ago the idea of not having a desktop PC seemed bizarre, but I haven’t had one in my home for eight years. And with a tablet to hand, I rarely boot my laptop these days.
Carl_matthews said: MORON."He's an moron who doesn't know what he's talking about !" was my first response to the headline. How can anyone suggest that the Smartphone is or will be capable enough to replace the Laptop or PC ! The range of apps required and the levels of complexity necessary in those apps to effectively achieve PC replacement would make the task impossible. The Tablet goes a measure towards achieving the goal of replacing the Laptop, but is still a long way off yet. From my view point it's all about the functionality. So many users require nothing more than a unit with an internet interface and can play some games. For these users the capabilities of a PC or Laptop is far too great and they will never go further than to use the aspects I mentioned, meaning the machine is greatly under used. Therein lies the Tablet market, and with progress the Smartphone market of the future.However, there are other users out here that have a very different requirement from their machines, amongst whom I count myself. Games and internet access for social websites or emails is a miniscule fraction of our requirements (if a requirement at all !). There are a multitude of users who, to describe or to differentiate from the users described above, I would offer the terms 'business' or 'serious' users, for whom the machine is an important tool of their trade. For these users the Tablet or Smartphone will probably never get near to replacing the PC or Laptop, in as much as the Tablet & Smartphone will never have sufficient capability to match their needs.WARNING.Then a second thought occurred to me. "There are morons out there in the OEM sector who have insufficient intelligence to comprehend the differences I raise, or are too focussed on making money from the Tablet & Smartphone markets." This is when the alarms bells went off in my mind. I wholly subscribe to my second thought based on my experience to date with Microsoft and WM7, but I can also see Apple following suit, and therefore so will others. All the OEM's have chosen the direction they will continue to develop in, regardless of the users requirements. It's clear they are pushing all future development towards Cloud based interaction, which may suit the majority of users of the Tablet &/or Smartphone markets. But not all !Some of us would like to utilise Tablet or Smartphone technology for its convenience and portability. However, due to the nature, or content, of our business we are prohibited from using the Cloud. ( Currently the Cloud technology is still immature and has inherent security risks. I accept that as the Cloud matures the security will improve, but will it ever be secure enough...? I doubt it ! ) But alternative currently existing options are being phased out, inconsiderately forcing all into moving with the crowd in probably the wrong direction.So here we are, millions of users needing to use Laptops & PC's, being told that the future is a technology that is inadequate, unsecure, and geared towards the entertainment markets. Our voice is being ignored. Our needs are basically brushed aside. Be warned, there are morons out there, unfortunately they have climbed corporate ladders and are being listened to...Good luck guys,Charlie.