IDC predicts that Windows Phone will surge ahead to become the number-two smartphone operating system by 2015 behind Google Android. That forecast would push Apple's iPhone down to third position, followed by BlackBerry in fourth in 2015, the market research firm said.
Microsoft 'will take second slot behind Android'
Windows Phone will grow, IDC said, because of the alliance forged between the world's largest mobile phone maker, Nokia, and software powerhouse Microsoft.
"The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform," said Ramon Llamas, an IDC analyst. Many analyst firms, including IDC and Gartner, had predicted last year that Windows Phone without Nokia would only reach 5 to 10 percent market share in coming years.
IDC expects the first devices from the new Nokia/Microsoft alliance to launch in 2012. "By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be the number-two operating system worldwide behind Android," Llamas said.
In 2011, IDC expects Android to secure the top spot for all 12 months of the year, after pushing into top territory late in 2010. Android will secure nearly 40 percent of the smartphone operating system market in 2011, IDC predicted, and then move to 45 percent in 2015. Symbian, Nokia's current OS, will retreat to second place with nearly 21 percent in 2011, to zero by 2015, since Symbian phones will no longer be produced sometime after 2012.
Apple's iOS will be in third position globally for all of 2011, with nearly 15.7 percent of the market, falling to 15.3 percent of the market in 2015. Apple will still sell 19 percent more smartphones each year, however, as the smartphone market expands.
BlackBerry, the smartphone from Research in Motion, will be in fourth position for all of 2011 with 14.9 percent share of the market, dropping to 13.7 percent share in 2015. BlackBerry will still grow by 17 percent each year.
Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile, the older Microsoft OS, will take 5.5 percent of the market in 2011, but Windows Phone will surge to nearly 21 percent in 2015, an annual growth rate of 67 percent, IDC said.
Overall, smartphones won't grow quite as fast in 2011 as in 2010, IDC noted. Growth in smartphones globally will be 49.2 percent, IDC said. Vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011, compared with 303.4 million shipped in 2010, IDC added.
Part of the reason for the fast growth in 2010 was that buyers held off mobile phone purchases during the 2009 economic downturn, said Kevin Restivo, also an IDC analyst. "The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010."
Comments
Guest said: Seems there are alot of people that are pointing to Microsoft funding ALOT of IDC reports along with NPD and NSS LabsIt seems if you have an unlimited pot of advertising money AKA bribes then there is a queue of companies that will write nice things about your products in exchange for that moneyOf course this practice is illegal is most parts of the world including the US but as we all know Microsoft are untouchable as they own most of the US congress
Matt Egan said: You dont have to wonder MrJolly this story was based on independent research from IDC a globally respected independent research organisation So Microsoft paid exaclty 0 which converts to 0 today Ask yourself this why exactly would it pay for such a report
Guest said: BWWHHHHAAAA HHAAAAAPeople actually believe this crud I wonder how much Microsoft paid for this report Windows Phone is the laughing stock of the mobile world and consumers arent idiots They wont be buying Microsoft or Nokia phones anytime soon
Wac said: What about hppalm webOS
Wac said: What about hppalm webOS
BEJ said: Its as likely that Windows will sink Nokia as it is that Nokia will float Windows to anyplace near the the iPhone - much more likley in my viewFor that to happen Nokia would have to be calling the shots - or at least listened to and how likely is that
Matt Egan - Editor said: PBG - let me join you in pedantary corner Windows Phone 7 is an OS Windows Phone is a generic term for the platform I think in this instance we can probably get away with considering both iPhone and Windows Phone as referring to their respective platforms
BEJ said: Its as likely that Windows will sink Nokia as it is that Nokia will float Windows to anyplace near the the iPhone - much more likley in my viewFor that to happen Nokia would have to be calling the shots - or at least listened to and how likely is that
PBG said: The headline is wrong - Windows Phone is an OS - iPhone is hardware Comparing 2 very different things here - Android and Windows Phone are general OSes that work on multiple devices iOs only needs to work on iPhone for the purposes of this discussion anyway