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Why Windows won't always dominate

New devices predicted to shrink giant’s OS market share

Microsoft's domination of the client operating systems market will fade over the next few years, according to Avneesh Saxena, vice-president for Asia-Pacific computing systems research at IDC.

Microsoft currently has around 90 percent share of the client operating system market with Windows but this will fall to 58 percent by 2007 as new devices increasingly appear, Saxena said at the IDC Directions conference in Singapore this week.

"Operating systems are not going away and we're not going to one single platform," he says. "Different workloads require different operating systems and the range of new devices will cause Microsoft's market share to fall."

By 2007, Windows on PCs will account for 58 percent of the client operating system market, with the Symbian OS for communication devices taking 17 percent, according to IDC figures.

Smart mobile phones with the ability to run applications were also considered in IDC's analysis. Windows for communication devices will account for 6 percent of the market and Linux for digital video recorders will account for 5 percent, Saxena says.

The server market will remain mixed, with variants of Unix accounting for 36 percent, Windows for 35 percent, and Linux for 15 percent, he says.

The wide range of devices being used in enterprise by IT systems will create major problems of complexity for ITT managers in future, Saxena says.

"Complexity will rise phenomenally in the next few years," he says. "By 2012, data transmission to the centre [from client devices] will account for about 45 percent of traffic and there will be billions of embedded devices."

These changes are being driven by four main business imperatives: the need for faster access to information; greater efficiencies; reduced costs; and improved collaboration with partners.


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