spider9

It matters little what English, or even Scottish, politicians say.

There has been a consistent 70%, give or take a few percentage points, against independence since polls first started.

Only something like the Poll Tax, and I think the Tories have leaned their lesson there, is going to have any major effect on that.

Unlike fm, I am a committed separationist.

Unlike you, I am also a realist.

spider9

"Information comes to the people, in the main, through the media and governments"

At one point in his life my father was a parliamentary candidate for one of the main political parties. He withdrew before the General election, but that's another story.

During his time as a candidate he spoke at many meetings and events, and he asked me if I would attend with him and conduct unofficial and unscientific polls of peoples' opinions, simply by chatting to them. I must have spoken to hundreds of people, and what we discovered was that in fact a large number of them got lots of their information, not from the sources you cite, but from friends and work colleagues, or even from complete strangers in trains, on buses, in queues etc.

'from friends and work colleagues, or even from complete strangers in trains, on buses, in queues etc.'

And a great many people don't pay any attention to any information. Their view is fixed. Those are the ones that can be ignored when looking at the likely result.

What matters are the 'don't knows'. At the moment, support is running at about 30% with about 20% undecided. That means all undecideds have to decide in favour to barely scrape a majority. If the undecideds split in line with the current decideds then there will be a 62.5% 'No' vote.

There have been studies suggesting that, in exceptional circumstances, as many as 80% of undecideds can make the same choice.

For 2014, that would mean the current 30% becoming 46%.

Is that confirmation that Southern England is the best place to live in the world?

FE

With respect I might counter your " unofficial and unscientific polls of peoples' opinions" which were taken by yourself, at meetings, voluntarily attended I presume.

Why did all those people you spoke to actually attend those meetings , if not to gather information and opinions from the prospective MP, before they cast votes?

Yes people do use all sorts of sources, I never implied they didn't, but MPs and the media also figure substantially in the picture. (What was that famous election headline - The Sun Won It - or something very similar? Which then begs the question of why Party leaders have always courted the newspaper 'barons' if they feel the media have no influence on voters??)