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Are we heading out of the Recession?.


spuds
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We seem to be hearing all sorts of stories, mainly from political sources, about the Recession and what is being done.

But what are your views, because in my location, there seems to be a rather disturbing increase of company's closing down at very short notice, with the end results that not only the major company as failed, but so as the other people and smaller company's involved within the industry, possibly as sub-contractor's.

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Forum Editor

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alan14

In July 2011 the Office for National Statistics released figures which showed that The West Midlands, London and the South East faced the highest number of net full-time jobs losses, with each losing more than 100,000 jobs.

Basing a judgment (as you have) on the number of closed shops you see is the wrong way to go about it. Job losses are a far better indicator of the impact of a recession because they tend to come from several economic sectors,not just the retail industry.

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Blackhat

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I have 3 manufacturing companies relating to home improvement and retail construction. One of which officially goes into liquidation tomorrow when I attend the shareholders and creditors meeting with the insolvency practitioner.

The other 2 have never had it so bad and it looks like only a merger and down sizing will save them (with some job losses)

The recession is on going and will be for some time and some sectors have yet to hit rock bottom. Thats my view.

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spuds

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fourm member

You may have missed, council's allowing the likes of Tesco and other similar supermarket chains , taking over complete areas with their 'mini stores', which leads to other smaller retailer's going out of business?.

Doesn't take long for the promotion offers to decrease, and the prices soon rise.

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spuds

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FE

"There's no reason that the taxpayer should be expected to support small businesses that become insolvent"

How do you work that out, the government were quick enough to use taxpayer's money to support banks. And at the same, including now, the government are doing PR exercises about banks helping and lending more to small businesses. But ask many of the owner's if much as changed.

I remember the statements made by Alistair Darling, when on the eve of the crisis became known, the bankers were making all sorts of demands. Alistair Darling at to tell or remind the banker's that they had nothing to demand with, they were insolvent.

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Aitchbee

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Observing today, Victoria Road, Glasgow (southside), a very busy thoroughfare that recently used to be a 'desolation row' of empty shops and business premises; I've noticed a resurrgence of businesses, all foreign 'Fruit & Veg Shops' or Computer/Phone outlets ... my suspicious mind makes me think of 'money-laundering' schemes that have been swept under the carpet or evaded the RADAR of The Inland Revenue or am I just imagining this. Does anybody else have a high street with an over-abundance of Asian fruit shops?

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oresome

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I think the short answer to the question is no.

Government spending is not coming down fast enough if at all.

Banks won't lend whilst tough liquidity rules are being imposed on them.

Markets for our goods are also in deep recession, so they are not buying.

Pensioners' income is depressed by low interest rates on savings, so they are not able to spend

Raising interest rates would create large defaults from mortgage borrowers for the banks.

Lack of confidence by consumers depresses spending even if they are in work.

The large number of civil service jobs needed to go will not be taken up by the private sector with equivalent quality jobs, so less money in the economy.

We won't get decisive action until we get a one party government and then I wouldn't hold your breath.

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spuds

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alan14

Your comments about empty shops, made me think about the government initiative of allowing council's to have what is referred in government guidelines as 'Pop-Up' shops.

The scheme was to allow council's to use vacant shop's, for area community ideas and use, with special allowances in rent and rate rebates or other reductions. Yet I have not managed to find any council who as taken on the scheme.

I live not far from a council owned precinct, which had about 30 in full use small/medium sized shop's. About six years ago, it was decided that the shop's and flat's above would be demolished, in favour of less but better shops and affordable housing. In the six years there as been three, possibly four property developer's who were going to work wonders, but all have fell by the wayside, due to funding arrangements.

Of the thirty shops, only seven are now are in use. The remainder including the flat's were vacated on the council's express wishes. Yet at the same time, there are people in the area who would love to have the use of a Pop-Up shop, and the council will not allow it. Possibly because a developer (without funding) would object to the premise being used, yet the scheme apparently allows for easy vacancy and clearance arrangements?.

As I have said on many occasions- A funny old world really!.

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Bing.alau

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I was shopping in Southport last weekend and noticed that there are shops which have suddenly sprung up out of nowhere. They are all selling temporary Christmas items such as cheap toys and decorations etc. No doubt they will disappear as quickly as they appeared. Are these "Pop up Shops"?

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spuds

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Bing.alau

No they are not Pop-Up Shops as the guidelines state, its more like chancers after a quick sale!.

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Blackhat

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Heard some interesting comments today at my meeting with the insolvency practitioner, firstly he noted that the vast majority of small to medium companies do not survive more than 9 months following their 1st CCJ, I concur.

Secondly and very worryingly is that a lot of medium to large organisations are in what is called by the financiers & bankers as ‘intensive care’. This is where the banks cannot see the companies surviving but have no assets or recoverable value. They are then drip fed finance to the point where there is value in pulling the plug.

No good putting in a winding up order on a broke company but if most of the debt is to the banks it is in their interest to nurse the assets until they can generate a return on the lending through insolvency. Scary!

I have learned the hard way to not keep squinting at a very dim light at the end of a very long and winding tunnel, turn around; there may be a very big & bright opening behind you.

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