Looking at the pictures, it would seem there was a lighthouse clearly visible.

The vessel was between 3 and 4 nautical miles off the course which she uses once a week. Conditions were calm.

Something quite obviously went badly wrong, and I doubt that it will take the investigators long to find out what. The ship's black box recorder and the crew will reveal the facts.

"...the crew seemed very unprofessional"

If I was on a ship listing badly by the second, the only thing that would make sense to me would be self preservation, that's not out of selfishness, what else can you do if every thing's sliding dangerously to one side, tables, chairs, bottles, people. Calming but professional palm court quintets would be the last thing that would interest me right then.

The Titanic was unusual in that it had time for everyone to board a life boat had there been enough, but most passenger ship disasters since have happened within minutes. The RORO ferries being the quickest having huge areas low down with no stabilising bulkheads that can cause a ship to capsize in the time it takes only a few inches of water to rush to one side.

I think pure luck was a big factor in this incident (until negligence is conclusively ruled out I refuse to call it an accident). Bad luck to run aground in the first place, but good luck to do so in mild seas, temperate climate and so close to land that people could swim to safety. Imagine the loss of life had this happened in arctic conditions while blowing a gale and the ship had coasted into enough deep water to completely submerge or capsize the hull.

Comparisons have inevitably been made with the titanic. One of the consequences of the 1912 sinking is that ships must have enough lifeboat capacity for all aboard. And yet I was struck with the picture of the concordia's side showing 2 liferafts dangling uselessly from the davits and resting on the overturned side of the hull. unless a ship is settling on a relatively even keel then the launching of boats - difficult at the best of times - is going to be a big problem. More so when an increasing list is thrown in. Such a list could quite easily incapacitate a significant percentage of the lifeboat capacity, which brings us into titanic territory.

And lastly, the numbers involved. Over 4000 people. Think about it. Four thousand. Just imagine the problems involved in getting so many people off a ship as quickly as possible in an emergency. Many of them asleep in their cabins, some under the influence of drink, most of them confused.

Cruise ship designers and operators will have a lot to think about over the next few years. They've dodged a bullet here. Next time - and there will be a next time - they and their passengers might not be so lucky.

WTM