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Is war between the west and Iran inevitable?


Flak999

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Storm clouds are gathering in the east! Once again it seems inevitable that the west will soon become embroiled in another foreign adventure. Following the sacking last week of the British embassy in Tehran and the closure of the Iranian embassy in London, we seem set upon the inevitable path of conflict with another middle eastern state.

The turmoil that has beset this region continues unabated, it seems from the latest polls that the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt will be the largest party. The upheaval in Syria grows day by day, Assad warned the west "be careful what you wish for." The Arab spring is taking us down the much feared road to Armageddon.

Following the report from the IAEA which pointed to the likelihood of a military application of Iran's nuclear program, we are led to the only possible conclusion, that Israel with the covert or as seems more likely the overt support of the USA will strike Iran's nuclear facilities to stop the development of Iran's nuclear weapons.

Where will this leave us in Britain? We are a firm ally of the US and it would seem likely that we will be drawn into the conflict. How many millions of pounds and how many hundreds possibly thousands of British lives will we have to commit to this perhaps the last of our foreign expeditions?

The retaliation of the Iranians will be to close the straits of Hormuz to the transit of western oil imports, oil prices will rise to astronomical levels and our already fragile economies will implode. Iranian state sponsored terrorism will be visited upon our western cities, is this the beginning of the end game between the west and militant Islam?

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Woolwell

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And it still does not work! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MassiveOrdancePenetrator Copy and paste

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Woolwell

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Ok it will need a tiny url. But you get the idea.

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john bunyan

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Woolwell. See my 4.55 post. Difficult to post.

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Forum Editor

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Rick'scafe

"I will ask you to keep your personal remarks to yourself - I find it insulting to have the tory central office apologist on the board talk to me of bias."

Am I the only one to see the (unintentional) funny side of that remark?

First of all, I think, if you read the comment that so offended you once again you'll realise that the link you posted was being accused of bias, not you. You're feeling insulted for no reason.

Secondly, how silly to ask someone to "keep your personal remarks to yourself" and promptly follow up with a personal remark of your own.

We all overreact occasionally - you're not the first, and you won't be the last. It's always a good idea to pause and think for a moment before hitting the 'Post' button.

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interzone55

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the hick

A body in freefall will keep accelerating until wind resistance exceeds the pull of gravity.

The MOP is a very heavy lump of metal with fins and a propeller on the top, it falls nose first and the fins & propeller spin it in the air, and steer it towards the target.

Dropped from about 40,000 feet it will hit the ground at supersonic speeds without the need for any kind of propellant, burying itself in up to 100 feet of reinforced concrete before the tonne of explosives does some serious damage.

This will have the dual effect of both destroying any potential enrichment lab, and bringing the roof down to bury the radioactive nastiness.

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johndrew

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Ah. But with the new 'impenetrable' silos .....

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morddwyd

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According to the link that Rick'scafe posted, they themselves say that

"Counterfire is an organisation of revolutionary socialists."

Sounds pretty biased to me, and therefore fair comment from fm!

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Flak999

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What is the reasoning behind Iran's rhetoric? If as the FE postulates Iran only has enough enrichable material for two weapons, and is able to deploy those weapons against the Israeli state. They must know that the retaliation that they would receive would be so massive that Iran as we know it would not survive the exchange?

Can we therefore assume that A) this is just bluster and sabre rattling on behalf of the Iranians? or B) That Ahmadinejad is so crazy that he desires martyrdom for himself and his people following their attack on Israel?

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Forum Editor

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"They must know that the retaliation that they would receive would be so massive that Iran as we know it would not survive the exchange?"

Which is precisely why it won't happen. This is all about face,and the saving of it, and yes, there is a degree of sabre rattling, but that's the game where nuclear weapons are concerned. They are there to deter, rather than to precipitate. So far, so good, but it could all go wrong if one slightly unbalanced person is pushed to the point where he or she sees no alternative but to give the 'go' order.

What happens over the next couple of years will be telling. There are distinct signs that popular opinion in some Middle Eastern countries has swung in favour of Iran going ahead with a nuclear weapons programme,as President Obama's popularity has taken a nose-dive. That's not the feeling in the United Arab Emirates - they think that increased pressure should be exerted on the Iranian government to stop any weapons programme.

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morddwyd

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"the retaliation that they would receive would be so massive that Iran as we know it would not survive the exchange?"

That is not a problem for Islamic fundamentalists, who are (arguably) in charge in Iran.

Martyrdom is glorious, whether a team of suicide bombers hijacking airliners, or a country wiping out Israel.

They know that if they dropped just one device on Tel Aviv Muslims would still regard them as heroes in a thousand years time.

Don't forget that they no more regard themselves as Arabs as do Muslim countries like Nigeria or Indonesia.

They regard themselves, maybe justifiably, as the oldest, and most cultured, civilisation in the world.

They survived Genghis Khan, they survived Alexander the Great.

They only consider the long term, like I suggested, a thousand years plus.

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