For a number of years prior to retirement I worked as a senior commodity buyer for a major multinational. In my part alone we bought $2billion worth of (mainly edible oils and fats) - mostly in US$ but in a variety of other currencies, mostly on a c.i.f basis but occasionally f.o.b. Anyone who says he can accurately forecast currency movements is either a liar or God. We used to automatically cover the currency on a back to back basis - for example if we bought, say, $5,000,000 worth of product for the UK, we would immediately "cover" the currency by using the £/$ exchange rate for the expected payment date. A totally separate "Treasury" unit would take positions in currency but individual companies in the group were not involved in such risks. A major problem with currency trading is that political events can suddenly swamp fundamental issues. (Just look at the £ during the recent referendum.) Too long here to go into the many reasons why, but my advice to a private investor is not to touch currency speculation (that is what it is) with a 10 ft barge pole.