Iran next?

  Al94 16:14 14 Feb 11
Locked

Looks like Iran may be next click here
There must be a lot of autocratic Presidents getting nervous!

  Forum Editor 17:21 14 Feb 11

which could lead to a feeling of 'why not us, too?' in some countries with oppressive regimes.

The problem is, these oppressive regimes aren't likely to sit around, waiting to see what happens - they'll be ready with the means to deal out swift and violent deterrents.

Egypt has (so far) seen a relatively peaceful and painless transition from oppressive dictatorship to military rule, but the country isn't out of the wood yet, there is still time for the power vacuum to attract contenders eager to seize control. Elsewhere in the world military governors have been notoriously reluctant to relinquish power, once they got their hands on it.

Boxes were ticked quite rapidly in Egypt,once the thing started, but that is not likely to happen quite so easily in Iran, should a similar bid for democracy take place. There would be bloodshed, and a lot of it.

  rickf 17:54 14 Feb 11

Iran Next=A very bloody affair. Their security forces are very prepaired to open fire on demostrators. Still most revolutions includes a sacrifce of life. For one I would like to see a change there.

  rickf 17:55 14 Feb 11

....but I'm not suggesting regime change in the fashion of Blair and Bush.

  sunnystaines 18:00 14 Feb 11

I think the problem with these many of these countries is that a free vote will not work look at venezuela / iran etc.

when run by the military was not too bad. but when the free vote came along the peasants and the large unemployed youth out voted educated people due to there shear numbers resulting in either far left leaders or in the case of the middle east extreme mullahs.

iran is now worse with the mullahs than it was with the shah, out of the fire into the frying pan and venezuela should be doing well with its oil wealth but chavaz has turned it into country of choas.

  jakimo 18:05 14 Feb 11

'Of course, it's not just the Middle East where people have complaints about their government.'

You could have come much closer to home than that

  Forum Editor 18:05 14 Feb 11

which is all that deters people.

Imagine you're longing for a fundamental change; you live under an oppressive regime, and you want a democratic society, what stops you and other like-minded people from marching up to the dictator's palace and demanding that he clears off?

What stops you is the fear of being shot down right there and then. Getting rid of a dictator isn't easy; what does it in the end is usually a mass demonstration of public dissatisfaction with a good deal of civil disobedience thrown in. Tension runs high, and people get shot, and every one of them would tell you that they didn't believe it would happen to them.

People hang back from joining a revolution because they fear death at the hands of the very people they want to see overthrown.

  Strawballs 20:03 14 Feb 11

The only time it seems to work is when all or a large part of that countrys army comes down in favour of the protesters, places like Iran I can't see that happening.

  morddwyd 20:41 14 Feb 11

"Iran next? "

No.

  Forum Editor 01:02 15 Feb 11

Don't be so sure.

Thousands of opposition supporters have clashed with security forces in Tehran today, and similar events occurred in the cities of Isfahan, Mashhad and Shiraz. It's too early to talk of revolution, but the Iran authorities are taking no chances - the police have placed opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest.

Things are looking decidedly unsettled click here

  morddwyd 05:00 15 Feb 11

"the police have placed opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest."

Exactly.

In Cairo the police were not on the streets.

Mubarak might have been ruthless, but in Iran the religious leaders are in charge.

They don't come any more ruthless than that, in any country, or any religion.

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