Exit Poll shock - but how reliable.

  simonjary 23:00 07 May 15
Locked

Exit Poll puts Cons well ahead of Labour, despite all the pre-Election opinion polls. The exit poll was conducted by NOP/MORI for the BBC, ITV and Sky.

Apparently poll accuracy (if representative sample) is 1 divided by square root of number polled. BBC poll 22,000 so should be 1/root 22k = within 0.7%. However, it isn't the only exit poll... Although the YouGov one is only from 6,000 people.

BBC/Sky: CON 316 MPs, LAB 239, LIBS 10, SNP 58, PLAID 4, UKIP 2, GREEN 2.

YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

Polls, eh?!

  Forum Editor 23:09 07 May 15

I was exit polled this evening, by exactly the same person who polled me at the last election.

I'm going to bed, and will probably get up at around 5:00 am, by which time the results will be flooding in.

  simonjary 05:32 08 May 15

Looks like it was pretty accurate.

  Quickbeam 06:12 08 May 15

Looks like we don't like coalition after all!

The one thing that will have to be addressed pretty quickly now is the old West Lothian question.

  Quickbeam 06:23 08 May 15

It's looking like two major parties will soon be getting new leaders and I'm waiting for Paddy Ashdown to eat the hat he said he would on live TV should the exit poll that he dismissed as way off the mark turn out to be accurate!

  oresome 19:22 08 May 15

Quickbeam,

He did later modify his answer to a marzipan hat, so he wasn't that confident!

I'm not sure how the mathematics accounts for the truthfulness of those questioned, but the poll results were spot. They may make a visual judgement of those asked and the FE doesn't look shifty hence he's been asked twice.

I've completed numerous on-line surveys running up to the election and have always answered honestly.

  bumpkin 19:52 08 May 15

He did later modify his answer to a marzipan hat,

Just more sweet talk from a politician.

  john bunyan 20:36 08 May 15

bumpkin , Oresome

I first met PA 54 years ago when he ran my Jungle Warfare course in a SF unit. I have met him quite often at military reunions, where he is the Patron of a charity for ex members of the Service concerned. I have never discussed politics with him , neither has he raised it in the group get togethers, and he is mercilessly teased on certain matters by former SNCO's. I did think of sending him a marzipan Green Beret, but will maintain my non political stance with him. A worthy soul and he must be so disappointed, Incidentally, he speaks fluent Mandarin, Serbo - Croat, Malay, Iban, French and has had an interesting life, Time to retire methinks. Just watching Question Time on BBC 1 and he was given a chocolate hat to eat; Alistair Campbell was given a chocolate kilt. They have yet to start eating them.

  Quickbeam 20:47 08 May 15

Class!

  Quickbeam 22:11 08 May 15

Even more class, the BBC news reporter on the massed resignations said, "you wait for one resignation, and then three arrive all at once"!

  oresome 12:16 09 May 15

It was certainly a bloodbath and we have lost some fine politicians.

I'm not sure I would want a 20 year old student of any political persuasion representing me in parliament but she will need to grow up quickly.

I refer to Mhairi Black, MP for Paisley & Renfrewshire South.

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