Brown warns on global crisis

  royalflush 20:23 05 Apr 08
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Another story to hit the news today this is very worrying

  ulrich 21:16 05 Apr 08

He started it in England.

  belfman 21:22 05 Apr 08

Ah right...

Is that why MPs are collecting up all the cash they can in allowances and wanting a £23,000 pay rise. Makes sense - they wanna make sure they aren't affected.

  sunny staines 12:35 06 Apr 08

he has a cheek saying that after what he has done here.

  Monoux 12:37 06 Apr 08

Of Course hes got a cheek hes' got more front than Dolly Parton

  johndrew 12:59 06 Apr 08

I presume the stock market `crash` of the 1930s failed to have the effects seen now then!!!???

  anskyber 13:09 06 Apr 08

A good and measured response to a global problem.

I'm pleased to see a leader taking the initiative to do something which is clearly required.

  Wilham 19:53 06 Apr 08

"Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist"

These words in Business section of D Tel the other day seemed apt to our present global financial mess, particularly when presenter Roger Bootle revealed the author was J M Keynes.

johndrew is right, there are some similarities with 1930's crash, but the causes then were not the same as now. That first crash started with the unfortunate effect of German reparations on our own industries, and followed by a return to the gold standard in 1925. Didn't stay on it long.

anskyber welcomes Government move to do something, and I agree. But the action is to hold a conference to decide what to do, which is less promising.

So bearing in mind the starting words of this post, I write what I think the real cause lies behind the present global turmoil.

Western governments and treasuries have controlled national debt with changes in bank rate and tax changes. Now the imbalances of trade has skewed national debt to a worldwide economy, and USA is losing control of the flow of 5 000 000 000 000 US dollars outside its borders.

Evidence...
Last week Australia has blocked foreign investment in its iron ore companies.
Three weeks ago China bought 20% of Rio Tinto.
Three months ago US suggested China devalued its currency, request denied (diplomatically... deferred indefinitely).
Last year US passed legislation to prevent foreign investment in installation/construction of American ports.

International finances have traditionally been planned well ahead, and Reserve Banks set aside cash requirements. Outbidding China for global resources has now put extreme demand on Federal and associated banks cash reserves.

Obvious remedy is huge import trade restrictions. Downside is reciprocal retaliation.

If this post makes sense, what action can Gordon Brown take?

  Wilham 19:59 06 Apr 08

This is the D Tel Roger Bootle link
click here

  Forum Editor 20:07 06 Apr 08

of impending financial doom on a global basis for as long as I can remember, and we seem to have muddled through pretty well.

Coincidentally, I have spent a good deal of the afternoon with a friend who is an investment banker, and he says that he and his colleagues find it hard, when listening to the media reports of impending this, or imminent that, to understand that they are living in the same world. The stock market is actually running at around 11% below its peak, and as far as he (my friend) is concerned things are nowhere near as bad as the media like to make out.

Experience tends to make me think he's right.

What action can Gordon Brown take? He can do little, other than avoid provocative legislation - moves that would obviously fuel inflation. The Bank of England can touch the tiller via interest rates, and the market can be left to handle business - investors will act in their own best interests, as has always been the case. We should worry less about making theorising keynote speeches at world-leadership conferences and more about what is actually happening out there.

To paraphrase an historical gaff I say 'Global turmoil - what Global turmoil?

  Wilham 22:36 06 Apr 08

FE
Thanks for comment. I find I'm in agreement of much of what you say. As British, we are moving towards being/having a service industry rather than manufacturing. This might be more comfortable for an investment banker. I'm quite serious. His or her prosperity and future could be more secure with an insurance company manager as client than a factory director. Even better could be a drugs distribution co. manager who imports medication, repacks for NHS distribution. These are growth industries.

The global turmoil in my view is the weakness of the US dollar, losing its world acceptance and trust. So gold comes back into its own, bringing turbulent times to money markets.

I predict the US will devalue the dollar, perhaps by 15 to 20 per cent. Was it Harold Wilson who said it won't affect the money in your pocket?

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