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While maybe not up to the standards of the "Western" democracies, I have always thought of the governments of Tunisia, Egypt, and now Yemen, and many other Arab states as reasonable stable.
So why the sudden wave of unrest? Is it entirely spontaneous, or is it being gently coordinated?
which way will egypt,yemen,tunisia,jordan etc go after their govt fails will it be a fair democratic state or a paranoid islamic hard line state like iran or choas like somalia
hope they get the first option.
'I have always thought of the governments of Tunisia, Egypt, and now Yemen, and many other Arab states as reasonable stable....not ever........Many Arab States run on autocratic government (The royal Saudi family is a good example) rather than meritocracy (or worse still, religiocracy)and human rights/fair elections are merely rumours. If you tell the peasants to eat cake then you had better make damn sure that you are eating the same cake especially when basic prices are shooting skywards and where wage rises to even cover inflation are non-existent. Such Governments are the first ones to feel the ire of public dissatisfaction as the theoretical shackles subduing the people are felt more when inequality is obvious and rubbed in their faces.
Economic woes and fiscal instability always focuses the populaces' racked-off mind genes especially if the Government bleat that 'we are all in this together'. Now where have I heard that before?
'will it be a fair democratic state or a paranoid islamic hard line state like iran or choas like somalia'...extreme Governments do subdue other extreme sections but when they are toppled, the new Government is nearly always extreme and Islam does have a huge amount of support and money behind it.
of something which destabilises the whole region. One only has to see the mixed messages coming out of Washington. Obama knows that he could lose those states friendly towards the west in this struggle now taking place.
Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have been good friends toward the west. Indeed Egypt and Jordan were the first Arab states to make peace with Israel. They have been a bulwark to the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the region. You only have to look at Iran since the overthrow of the Shah to see what we could possibly be facing.
Also as the Arab states control most of the western worlds oil supplies it does not take a genius to work out that we could be in for some very troubled times ahead! We think the price of oil is high now, if Egypt falls followed by the rest of the gulf states, new regimes hostile to the west could refuse to sell their oil to us and turn instead to China and Asia for their markets.
Israel will again be surrounded by regimes implacably hostile and will feel very threatened. President Ahmadinejad of Iran must be rubbing his hands in glee at the prospect!
World War Three anyone?
Probably the domino effect, the people of Egypt and the Yemen see Tunisians striving for change from a repressive government and decide they would like some of that.
Then again it may be something completly different
Whatever you think about the rule in Saudi Arabia, you cab hardly deny that by local standards it is fairly stable (up until now), as was Egypt.
Jordan. Saudi Arabia (already mentioned), the generic group known as the Gulf states, Bahrain, Kuwait until Saddam had ago, are all fairly stable (if also fairly repressed) by local standards.
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