Winning Odds?

  pj123 15:33 27 Aug 05
Locked

I have written an Excel file that gives me the Odds on winning. For example: Any 6 from 49 on the Lottery returns the odds of 13,983,816 to 1. but if I do the same thing for Football pools where it is Any 8 from 49 I get 450,978,066 to 1.

Can that be right? If so, you stand more chance of winning the Lottery than you do winning the Football Pools. Mind you, not many of us stand any chance of winning either.

  dave_and_confused 15:39 27 Aug 05

It would be right. Ignore all lesser prizes and just concentrate on the jackpot.

In both cases you need to get AT LEAST 6 out of 49 to have a chance of winning. Now by the time you get to 6 out of 49 correct numbers on the lottery you have won but with the Football Pools you now need to go on and get another 2 correct numbers. Hence the much higher odds...

  dave_and_confused 15:42 27 Aug 05

Can you share the formula?

  Happy Soul 15:49 27 Aug 05

Not quite right.

With Football Pools you can use the clubs form.


Could probably eliminate around 50% of the matches any week not ending in a draw.


Lottery numbers are completely random.

  Happy Soul 15:49 27 Aug 05

Not quite right.

With Football Pools you can use the clubs form.


Could probably eliminate around 50% of the matches any week not ending in a draw.


Lottery numbers are completely random.

  Stuartli 16:13 27 Aug 05

Apart from the uneconomic nature of extending the usual/more common Football Pools permutations (i.e. any eight from 10 or 11), the odds don't necessarily reflect a true win value.

As clear by its name, you are taking part in a football pool and the more winners the less prize money each receives and vice versa.

The National Lottery is similar apart from the £10 for three numbers and you are, in actual fact, much better off doing these type of bets with the bookmakers' versions; prizes are close to the true odds and you can do perms if you wish...:-)

  pj123 16:22 27 Aug 05

dave_and_confused, at the moment no. I need to know that it is working OK. But I can send you the original DOS program that I started it from. Unfortunately, it is an .exe file which most ISPs now wont allow. email me via the envelope.

  dave_and_confused 16:54 27 Aug 05

Cheers - but that's ok. Just wondered how one does it...
I know the theory....

1/49 x 1/48 x 1/47 etc

but never got round having to then turn some long number into a fraction.

Also i believe because there are 36 (??) ways of selecting the 6 winning numbers (i.e. 1,2,3,4,5,6; 2,1,3,4,5,6; 3,1,2,4,5,6 etc you also get a number that is huge and you have to divide that number by 6 or something....

  spargo 18:17 27 Aug 05

pj123

any a from b is given by

(factorial b) divided by (factorial a times factorial(b-a))

  Stuartli 20:57 27 Aug 05

pj123's calculation of winning the National Lottery Jackpot is exactly as stated - however, the overall chance/odds of actually winning a prize is one in 54.

You can see the odds breakdown at:

click here

  cymbo 22:12 27 Aug 05

Your figures are correct.

The calculation for any 6 from 49 is,

49x48x47x46x45x44 divided by
1x2x3x4x5x6
which equals 13983816

The calculation for any 8 from 49 is,

49x48x47x46x45x44x43x42 divided by 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
which equals 450978066

cheers.

cymbo.

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