Are we related at all ?
You've just echoed my own overall opinion almost verbatim.
I like Flash a lot and I'm using it more and more, but this is mainly for presentation purposes over fast connections or from a media source (like hard drive or CD ROM) where the read speed is more than fast ebough to prevent any real stuttering.
One area that I'm really into is Flash web applications, particularly multiple forms, where a combination of Flash with Actionscript tied into PHP or ASP processes form data for commerce sites and similar.
Everyone went Flash mad a couple of years ago in the web design world and the novelty has sadly not yet worn off for some. I don't feel that a Flash intro movie has much to offer in support of site content in about 99.9% of cases. I have seen the odd movie site or specialist niche site that does benefit from a dramatic introduction, but as you say, if your visitors are sitting there waiting, and waiting, and waiting...
Until every man and his dog is on very fast broadband, Flash has little appeal to me as a designer for websites. I'll stick with it for web applications or for media and education projects that are delivered over known, fast networks or from CD.
I've not used Flash for 'decorative' purposes on any site for nearly two years now. I've been asked to incorporate it, but so far at least, I've managed to put a convincing argument forward to persuade clients to rethink.
Anyway, the short version of all this is yes, I agree !