Excel,statistics and odds

  caast©? 19:15 18 Feb 04
Locked

I picked up a Euro Millions pay slip at the weekend and decided to give it a go, the first thing that interested me when looking on the back was the statistical odds of winning so I decided to compile an excel worksheet with a formula to calculate the odds.
The jackpot odds was easy enough and produced the odds quoted on the reverse of the ticket, but after that things went completely astray and now I am not sure if my calculations are correct or the reverse of the ticket. The operator would surely not be able to quote untrue odds so I have deduced that the way I am calculating and my perception of how the odds work is completely wrong.
The way I have calculated the jackpot is, any 5 from 50 = 2,118,760 multiplied by any 2 from 9 = 36 which gives the correct result 76,275,360:1

With this result I have assumed therefore that the odds of scoring 5 main balls with one star ball should be any 5 from 50 the same 2,118,760 multiplied by any one from nine over 2 chances = 4.5 which returns odds of 2,118,760 x 4.5 = 9,534420:1 this is 1.75 times greater than the odds quoted on the ticket which is 5,448,240.

The shift in odds is even greater when I try the calculation for 2 main numbers plus 1 star number i.e any 2 from 50; from 5 selections, times 1 from 9; from two selections, quoted at 39:1 or 1 main number from the 50; from 5 selections, and 2 star numbers, quoted as 103:1. Surely the result of any 2 from 9 remains constant at 36:1 so the quoted odds for 1 main plus 2 star of 103:1 means that any one number from five selections from the 50 can only yield 2.86:1 i.e. 103 divided by 36.

Are they saying that the odds of getting any one number out of the 50 from your 5 selections is only 2.86 to 1 is my correlation 10:1 completely wrong? Can anyone please explain the formula on how to calculate these odds? or point me in the right direction. M

I'm sure once I am shown how to calculate the odds I will be able to apply the correct formula into my worksheet

  Forum Editor 19:24 18 Feb 04

VoG will be along, and I'm sure you'll get your answer. My mind goes blank when faced with odds, which is why, on the few occasions I get invited to go racing I'm such a bookie's dream.

  caast©? 19:34 18 Feb 04

Thats just what I was counting on when posting the thread. I know VoG is the expert when it comes to excel. M

  Chris the Ancient 20:03 18 Feb 04

VoG's on holiday for a week!

I think what caast©? really needs first is a brilliant mathemetician.

And as I can't balance my accounts every month without taking my shoes and socks off (gives me more digits)...

Chris

  caast©? 20:09 18 Feb 04

although my degree was in the History of art, I trained as an accountant.

Probably due to the amount of time I spent in the bookies, while at Uni

  Chris the Ancient 20:15 18 Feb 04

There must be a statistician here somewhere!

I'd like to know as well!

Chris

  caast©? 20:42 18 Feb 04

quite easy to work the straight odds for any number for example if you require to know the number of trebles from a selection of six horses you would write down as such. i.e. three horses = treble from six horses picked.

1.x2.x 3. 6 1
6.x5.x 4. 120 20

therefore there are 20 trebles from six selections

For the lottery any 6 numbers from 49 =

1.x2.x3.x4.x5.x6. over 49.x48.x47.x46.x45.44

  caast©? 20:48 18 Feb 04

quite easy to work the straight odds for any number for example if you require to know the number of trebles from a selection of six horses you would write down as such. i.e. three horses = treble from six horses picked.
1.x2.x 3. over 6.x5.x 4. = 6 over 120 = 20

therefore there are 20 trebles from six selections

For the lottery any 6 numbers from 49 =

1.x2.x3.x4.x5.x6. over 49.x48.x47.x46.x45.44 =

13,983,816

  caast©? 19:48 19 Feb 04

will have to keep on bumping it until VoG gets back me thinks.

I did realize though that the operator is using licence for the way in which it calculates odds.
Much like we accountants can play about with figures and options to get a more favouable answer, just for the tax man.

With the star ball because anyone number could conceivably occur within 8 combinations, their is a 21:1 chance against not getting a star number or 14:1 of against only one number. They have therefore said that getting 5 numbers and 1 star number is 14 times less likely than the jackpot and 5 numbers and 0 star numbers is, you got it 21 times less likely.

i.e 76,275,360 divided by 14 is 5,448,240

However this does not help me in finding the correct solution/formula

Any maths/ statistics whizz kids in the forum to-night?

  Chris the Ancient 20:27 19 Feb 04

Chris

  pc moron 22:08 19 Feb 04

I think you need to take into account the chance of NOT matching The Lucky Star numbers.

i.e. the chance of matching 5 Main Numbers is really the chance of matching 5 Main Numbers AND NOT matching either of the Lucky Star Numbers.

Don't ask me to do the sums, it's years since I did anything like this.

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