Apple will make very little money from taking on the TV market, according to analysis.
The Street bases its analysis on a number of assumptions. It presumes that Apple will want to make a healthy gross margin of 35% at least; it also assumes Apple will grow its TV market share from around 0% in 2012 to about 7% in 2018; and that the television will be priced around $1,000 to $2,000.
The report notes that, according to NDP DisplaySearch, TV sales have stagnated at around 250 million units for the past two years. Sales are expected to see a slow pace of growth in the coming years.
The LCD segment of the market is seeing healthy growth, with the premium LED segment of the LCD market seeing even faster growth, notes the report. We see TV sales growing to around 285 million by the end of our forecast period.
Based on comparisons with Apple's successfully onslaught of the mobile phone market, The Street assumes that the Apple iTV will see "about the same market share growth trajectory as the iPhone." On this basis, the report predicts: "This shows that Apple will have close to 20 million iTV sales in 2018."
The Street calculates a price estimate of $740 a share for Apple based on 20 million Apple TV sales by the end of the forecast period, with the price declining from $1,500 in 2013 to $1,300 in 2018, and gross margins of 35% down to 30% by 2018.
This is "growth of less than 6% over the current $700 price estimate," notes the report.
"This goes to show that for all those who seem to believe that the iTV will be Apple's next big thing in the market, the iTV doesn't seem to add much value to Apple's stock," states the report.